Tuesday, March 07, 2017

Underestimating Trump's Health Plan

You'd think that by now, Americans would have learned from their mistakes.  In this very blog, back in July of 2015, I went on record with my conviction that Donald Trump could likely become the 45th president of the United States.  At the time, anyone and everyone dismissed my opinion, only to watch him inaugurated as the 45th president of the United States more than 18 months later.

At the time, the media and those who fancy themselves as quite knowledgeable, parroted each others' polls and opinions, promoting their confirmation biases based on outmoded, narrow thinking.  In the end, there was not a Bush or Clinton in sight.  As Britain's Nigel Farage is so fond of saying after Great Britain's BREXIT stunned the world in 2016, "You're not laughing now, are you?"

With all the shock and awe we've seen the world over since 2016, you'd think that people would finally understand that the political world no longer functions in the manner to which they've become accustomed.  There really is a new world order, but it's not the one the so-called "global elitists" had in mind.  The new reality was born with BREXIT, caught fire in the United States, and at the time of this writing, is about to strike heavy blows in France, Norway and Germany.  Hungary has already left the station and Poland isn't far behind.

Which brings us to the repeal and replacement of Obamacare, a favorite target of geniuses on both sides of the aisle, none of whom has seemed to learn their lessons from recent world history.

I wish that knee jerk reactionaries would take the time to understand what's really going on, as opposed to what they think is happening.  In the first place, this isn't a "Trump" plan; it's a Congressional proposal submitted for approval.  Like every other Congressional proposal, it's subject to modification and edits long before it reaches the President's desk.  

Second, it would help if the reactionaries had real jobs in the real world, which would help them understand that major changes in practices are always implemented in phases, with the simplest, most expeditious alterations are attempted first, followed by the gradual phasing in of more complicated, time-consuming issues.   In the business world, this is how things get done: You submit a plan, phase it in, and ensure a smooth transition.  In the academic world, nothing other than opining ever gets done, so I'm not surprised this is where their thought process stops.

Third, the crucial, more complicated phases of health care overhaul include the removal of state barriers that prevent real competition amongst service providers.  While it's been proven that removing barriers to competition lowers costs for consumers (which is why your insurance bill is lowered when you bundle car and home coverage with the same company), getting states to go along with that plan is not something that happens quickly.  States make a lot of money by ensuring their borders keep competitors out, so they're not likely to give up that province any time soon.  In the meantime, Trump's plan begins the process with some, but not all, parts in play.  In essence, Phase One is just that:  the first part of a multi-phase plan.

What happens next?  What, for example, if the states simply refuse to cooperate?

My guess is that the states will first be offered some sort of compensation for surrendering their borders against competition.  If they don't fall into line, I imagine the next step -- as is the case in this new world order -- would be the Federal government creating a new corporate classification of service providers which would be Federally chartered, granted the privilege of practicing throughout the United Staes and its territories.  As such, these providers' services would be available to any United States citizen or resident, regardless of physical location.  Located online and possibly headquartered in Washington, D.C., these Federally chartered service providers would be empowered to simply bypass the states via the internet, delivering more competition and lower costs that the administration promised.

In all likelihood, service providers would jump at the chance to lower their costs:  Ridding themselves of the compliance issues commanded by more than 50 states and territories, their costs of operation and administration would dramatically decrease, while online operations would integrate nicely into an environment of centralized electronic medical records.

All of this could -- or could not -- happen.  It all depends on whether you can see beyond what is set in front of you.  If you prefer to see the long-range realities, it makes a lot of sense,  If you prefer  the short-term political rhetoric, it might not.  Given the new world order, you have to ask yourself, "Does it sound unreasonable?"  Perhaps.

But in July of 2015, so did the phrase, "President Trump."


Blogger enzo said...

Interesting, today I read that Trump did mention this being part of a larger plan. It still smells of politics rather than true reform, but at least there is hope for something real later.

5:01 PM  
Blogger enzo said...

Interesting, I did read today that Trump mentioned that there will be future bills. It still smells of politics, but at least there's hope for actual reform later.

5:02 PM  

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